TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006769
Played Aug 25Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611116311––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 64 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 59.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 0–1 Denys Kozoriz Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:10What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1409 vs Kozoriz 1345
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kozoriz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Kozoriz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +4 · Kozoriz +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.91 / Kozoriz 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13006769
Ponomarenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 16 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Kozoriz1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 63 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayKozoriz1wins
Kozoriz leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPonomarenkoKozorizP − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match25.039.0−14.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 72 vs 274 / 52040.3%52.7%29 / 72 vs 274 / 520Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.634.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.91/Kozoriz 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko—561131D. Kozoriz—11116113
D. Ponomarenko10
WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113WAug 25 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831431161D. Ponomarenko1.8316116113WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592WAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113LAug 9 · 17:40V. Ziakun3.5071111113D. Ponomarenko1.28113861
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681LAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860
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