TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13016021
Played Aug 26Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111181181012711
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:00 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 72.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 1–1 Vsevolod Kheresko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1396 vs Kheresko 1227
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kheresko 40%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Kheresko 30%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Kheresko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.83 / Kheresko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13016021
Ponomarenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kheresko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayKheresko1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKhereskoP − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.047.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 77 vs 200 / 39541.6%50.6%32 / 77 vs 200 / 395Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.83/Kheresko 1.83
Miss
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko—611111072V. Kheresko—118812113
WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko—1111311113V. Kheresko—13611592
D. Ponomarenko10
WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113WAug 25 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831431161D. Ponomarenko1.8316116113WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592WAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113LAug 9 · 17:40V. Ziakun3.5071111113D. Ponomarenko1.28113861
V. Kheresko10
LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592
Upcoming Matches
D. Ponomarenko
Nothing scheduled
V. Kheresko
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