TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006831
Played Aug 25Finished
Danylo Kasian
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811118511611
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 61.0%
88 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1269 vs Ponomarenko 1382
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 60% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Kasian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 60% vs Ponomarenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian +1 · Ponomarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 2.00 / Ponomarenko 1.73
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006831
Kasian2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 14 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Ponomarenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 12 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 53 vs 25 / 6754.7%37.3%29 / 53 vs 25 / 67Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKasian 2.00/Ponomarenko 1.73
Hit
What we said
60.7%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Kasian10
WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113LAug 24 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk2.10101111123D. Kasian1.671285101WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113LAug 24 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.20711912113D. Kasian1.61118111062WAug 24 · 04:25M. Treschetka3.007129101D. Kasian1.36111011123WAug 23 · 18:55D. Belanchik2.00111167102D. Kasian1.73371111123
D. Ponomarenko10
WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113WAug 25 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831431161D. Ponomarenko1.8316116113WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592LAug 9 · 17:40V. Ziakun3.5071111113D. Ponomarenko1.28113861
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