TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481694
Played Aug 24Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121181151210––
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 55.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 2–2 Danylo Kasian Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kasian
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1235 vs Kasian 1271
Kasian
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 60% vs Kasian 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 60% vs Kasian 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk -1 · Kasian +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kasian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 2.10 / Kasian 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kasian)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12481694
Salivonchyk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 33 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Kasian1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 12 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it63% 5 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk2wins
AwayKasian2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk2Kasian2n = 4split evenly
S2Salivonchyk1Kasian3n = 4Kasian took 3 of 4
S3Salivonchyk2Kasian2n = 4split evenly
S4Salivonchyk2Kasian2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSalivonchykKasianS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.238.0+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 622 vs 28 / 5153.1%54.9%330 / 622 vs 28 / 51Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianSalivonchyk 2.10/Kasian 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 23 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk—115711113D. Kasian—61111862
LAug 17 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk—281191D. Kasian—11119113
WAug 10 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk—14911113D. Kasian—1211341
LAug 9 · 13:55V. Salivonchyk—911941D. Kasian—11511113
V. Salivonchyk10
WSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102
D. Kasian10
WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113LAug 24 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.20711912113D. Kasian1.61118111062WAug 24 · 04:25M. Treschetka3.007129101D. Kasian1.36111011123WAug 23 · 18:55D. Belanchik2.00111167102D. Kasian1.73371111123
Upcoming Matches
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