TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481864
Played Aug 24Finished
Mykhailo Vivatenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012311611––
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Vivatenko above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 58.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Vivatenko 0–1 Danylo Kasian Mykhailo Vivatenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vivatenko 1223 vs Kasian 1257
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vivatenko 60% vs Kasian 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vivatenko 60% vs Kasian 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vivatenko +2 · Kasian -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vivatenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVivatenko 2.25 / Kasian 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kasian)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12481864
Vivatenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 11 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Kasian1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 12 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it63% 5 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVivatenko0wins
AwayKasian1wins
Kasian leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricVivatenkoKasianV − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match16.033.0−17.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVivatenkoKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 270 vs 28 / 5255.6%53.9%150 / 270 vs 28 / 52Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianVivatenko 2.25/Kasian 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 14 · 09:25M. Vivatenko—4570D. Kasian—1111113
M. Vivatenko10
WAug 31 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.61131129113M. Dunas2.20115111192LAug 31 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.63111111113M. Vivatenko1.44138821LAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552LAug 31 · 06:25M. Vivatenko1.677121091O. Maksymkiv2.10111012113WAug 31 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.5011119752M. Vivatenko1.28971111113LAug 28 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.5711118762O. Maksymkiv2.25571111113WAug 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka2.6311781182M. Vivatenko1.44611116113LAug 28 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.5711115772M. Dunas2.25861111113LAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.331111113O. Maslovskyi3.255560
D. Kasian10
WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113LAug 24 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk2.10101111123D. Kasian1.671285101WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113LAug 24 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.20711912113D. Kasian1.61118111062WAug 24 · 04:25M. Treschetka3.007129101D. Kasian1.36111011123WAug 23 · 18:55D. Belanchik2.00111167102D. Kasian1.73371111123
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