TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12478068
Played Aug 23Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1131176117111012
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 89 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 64.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 0–2 Danylo Kasian Dmitriy Belanchik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1193 vs Kasian 1254
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 80% vs Kasian 40%
Belanchik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 60% vs Kasian 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +4 · Kasian -1
Belanchik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.00 / Kasian 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kasian)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12478068
Belanchik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 10 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Kasian1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 9 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBelanchik0wins
AwayKasian2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKasian leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBelanchikKasianB − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match41.546.0−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 228 vs 25 / 4744.3%53.2%101 / 228 vs 25 / 47Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianBelanchik 2.00/Kasian 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 30 · 08:25D. Belanchik—79111392D. Kasian—1111411113
LJul 29 · 14:25D. Belanchik—871361D. Kasian—111111113
D. Belanchik10
LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172LAug 28 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.20111311972O. Maksymkiv1.61915711113WAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.40891111113M. Dunas2.7511116552WAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113LAug 27 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.389111112133D. Belanchik1.531191310112WAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113LAug 27 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv1.831111143D. Belanchik1.8379120WAug 27 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.38911661D. Belanchik1.5311711113
D. Kasian10
WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113LAug 24 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk2.10101111123D. Kasian1.671285101WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113LAug 24 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.20711912113D. Kasian1.61118111062WAug 24 · 04:25M. Treschetka3.007129101D. Kasian1.36111011123
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