TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031424
Played Aug 28Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191315117911711
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 104 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 57.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 4–3 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1228 vs Maksymkiv 1151
Belanchik
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 80% vs Maksymkiv 60%
Belanchik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 70% vs Maksymkiv 50%
Belanchik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +3 · Maksymkiv +1
Belanchik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Belanchik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.20 / Maksymkiv 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13031424
Belanchik2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Maksymkiv1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 82 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBelanchik4wins
AwayMaksymkiv3wins
Belanchik leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik2Maksymkiv5n = 7Maksymkiv took 5 of 7
S2Belanchik5Maksymkiv2n = 7Belanchik took 5 of 7
S3Belanchik3Maksymkiv4n = 7Maksymkiv took 4 of 7
S4Belanchik4Maksymkiv2n = 6Belanchik took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricBelanchikMaksymkivB − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match34.633.0+1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 241 vs 358 / 68945.2%52%109 / 241 vs 358 / 689Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivBelanchik 2.20/Maksymkiv 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 23 · 12:55D. Belanchik—11811113O. Maksymkiv—811431
LJul 30 · 04:55D. Belanchik—411381O. Maksymkiv—11611113
LJul 29 · 16:59D. Belanchik—65120O. Maksymkiv—1111143
WJul 29 · 12:25D. Belanchik—61111113O. Maksymkiv—119361
WJul 27 · 10:25D. Belanchik—71311113O. Maksymkiv—1111331
WJul 26 · 15:25D. Belanchik—12118113O. Maksymkiv—1061161
LJul 2 · 11:55D. Belanchik—511581O. Maksymkiv—11711113
D. Belanchik10
LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172WAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.40891111113M. Dunas2.7511116552WAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113LAug 27 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.389111112133D. Belanchik1.531191310112WAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113LAug 27 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv1.831111143D. Belanchik1.8379120WAug 27 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.38911661D. Belanchik1.5311711113WAug 24 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.10312881D. Belanchik1.67111011113
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113WAug 27 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv1.831111143D. Belanchik1.8379120
Upcoming Matches
D. Belanchik
Nothing scheduled
O. Maksymkiv
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