TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031551
Played Aug 28Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911116115115
Mykhailo Dunas
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeDmitriy Belanchik to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Dmitriy Belanchik at 67.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 3–1 Mykhailo Dunas Mykhailo Dunas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Belanchik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Belanchik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1217 vs Dunas 1081
Belanchik
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 60% vs Dunas 20%
Belanchik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 60% vs Dunas 30%
Belanchik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +1 · Dunas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Belanchik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 1.40 / Dunas 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Belanchik)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031551
Belanchik1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 28 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Dunas2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 7 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back7% 1 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBelanchik3wins
AwayDunas1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderBelanchik leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik2Dunas2n = 4split evenly
S2Belanchik2Dunas2n = 4split evenly
S3Belanchik4Dunas0n = 4Belanchik took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBelanchikDunasB − DBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.232.2+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 240 vs 10 / 2945%34.5%108 / 240 vs 10 / 29Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.433.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BelanchikBelanchik 1.40/Dunas 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Belanchik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Belanchik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 28 · 04:55D. Belanchik—891111113M. Dunas—11116552
WAug 27 · 15:55D. Belanchik—1112113M. Dunas—61070
WAug 20 · 08:25D. Belanchik—1111123M. Dunas—69100
LAug 19 · 18:25D. Belanchik—9411111M. Dunas—11118133
D. Belanchik10
LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172LAug 28 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.20111311972O. Maksymkiv1.61915711113WAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113LAug 27 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.389111112133D. Belanchik1.531191310112WAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113LAug 27 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv1.831111143D. Belanchik1.8379120WAug 27 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.38911661D. Belanchik1.5311711113WAug 24 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.10312881D. Belanchik1.67111011113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421LAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113
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