TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088801
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911411––––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:31 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 57 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 66.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 26–8 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 8 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 12h before this match
Maksymkiv beat Kheresko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:31What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-8 in 34
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 18 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1257 vs Kheresko 1202
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 80% vs Kheresko 60%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Kheresko 40%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +3 · Kheresko +1
Maksymkiv
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.44 / Kheresko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13088801
Maksymkiv1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 129 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 90 of 110
Kheresko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv8wins
AwayKheresko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv100%3 of 3
AwayKheresko28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv3Kheresko7n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S2Maksymkiv6Kheresko4n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S3Maksymkiv7Kheresko3n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S4Maksymkiv6Kheresko3n = 9Maksymkiv took 6 of 9
S5Maksymkiv3Kheresko0n = 3Maksymkiv took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.5+2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 717 vs 205 / 41052.4%50%376 / 717 vs 205 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.44/Kheresko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv—13711163V. Kheresko—11118141
WSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv—911112113V. Kheresko—11871172
WAug 19 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—11124113V. Kheresko—8101191
WAug 10 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv—81111113V. Kheresko—117791
WAug 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—111011113V. Kheresko—812571
WJul 26 · 14:25O. Maksymkiv—311118113V. Kheresko—11921182
LJul 14 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv—10670V. Kheresko—1211113
WJul 9 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv—7111511113V. Kheresko—111313792
WJul 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv—111111123V. Kheresko—1363101
LJun 15 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—9111071V. Kheresko—11912113
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113WSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755330
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
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