TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061192
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118117211117
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 66.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 25–8 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 8 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-8 in 33
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 17 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1220 vs Kheresko 1192
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Kheresko 20%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Kheresko 40%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -2 · Kheresko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.44 / Kheresko 2.63
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061192
Maksymkiv1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 123 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Kheresko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv8wins
AwayKheresko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKheresko25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv2Kheresko8n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S2Maksymkiv7Kheresko3n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S3Maksymkiv7Kheresko3n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S4Maksymkiv6Kheresko3n = 9Maksymkiv took 6 of 9
S5Maksymkiv3Kheresko0n = 3Maksymkiv took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.839.2+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 705 vs 202 / 40352.3%50.1%369 / 705 vs 202 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.44/Kheresko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv—911112113V. Kheresko—11871172
WAug 19 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—11124113V. Kheresko—8101191
WAug 10 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv—81111113V. Kheresko—117791
WAug 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—111011113V. Kheresko—812571
WJul 26 · 14:25O. Maksymkiv—311118113V. Kheresko—11921182
LJul 14 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv—10670V. Kheresko—1211113
WJul 9 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv—7111511113V. Kheresko—111313792
WJul 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv—111111123V. Kheresko—1363101
LJun 15 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv—9111071V. Kheresko—11912113
WJun 14 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv—81113163V. Kheresko—11511141
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
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