TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006851
Played Aug 25Finished
Danylo Kasian
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111311411211––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 71 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Kasian 0–1 Denys Kozoriz Danylo Kasian has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1281 vs Kozoriz 1334
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 60% vs Kozoriz 40%
Kasian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 60% vs Kozoriz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian +1 · Kozoriz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kozoriz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 2.10 / Kozoriz 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kozoriz)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006851
Kasian2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 14 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Kozoriz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 59 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKasian0wins
AwayKozoriz1wins
Kozoriz leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKasianKozorizKasian − KozorizBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match27.044.0−17.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 57 vs 272 / 51754.4%52.6%31 / 57 vs 272 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.034.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizKasian 2.10/Kozoriz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian—813421D. Kozoriz—111111113
D. Kasian10
WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113LAug 24 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk2.10101111123D. Kasian1.671285101WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113LAug 24 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.20711912113D. Kasian1.61118111062WAug 24 · 04:25M. Treschetka3.007129101D. Kasian1.36111011123WAug 23 · 18:55D. Belanchik2.00111167102D. Kasian1.73371111123
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431
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