TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055243
Played Sep 1Finished
Denys Kozoriz
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112115112––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Kozoriz above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 42 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 54.3%
42 points played in total.
H2H Denys Kozoriz 4–3 Kyrylo Tkachenko Kyrylo Tkachenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozoriz 1339 vs Tkachenko 1397
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozoriz 40% vs Tkachenko 80%
Tkachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozoriz 50% vs Tkachenko 70%
Tkachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozoriz -1 · Tkachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozoriz 1.91 / Tkachenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055243
Kozoriz1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Tkachenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 68 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKozoriz4wins
AwayTkachenko3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKozoriz leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozoriz100%3 of 3
AwayTkachenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozoriz3Tkachenko4n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S2Kozoriz3Tkachenko4n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S3Kozoriz5Tkachenko2n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S4Kozoriz4Tkachenko1n = 5Kozoriz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKozorizTkachenkoK − TBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.332.1+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozorizTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 517 vs 95 / 17352.8%54.9%273 / 517 vs 95 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoKozoriz 1.91/Tkachenko 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz—1111113K. Tkachenko—2520
WAug 11 · 18:55D. Kozoriz—11911113K. Tkachenko—911591
LMay 13 · 12:25D. Kozoriz—27110K. Tkachenko—1111133
WJul 31 · 14:55D. Kozoriz—81112113K. Tkachenko—1141061
WJul 17 · 18:25D. Kozoriz—11411113K. Tkachenko—211681
LMay 22 · 10:55D. Kozoriz—5111061K. Tkachenko—11812113
LApr 2 · 16:55D. Kozoriz—67111162K. Tkachenko—111195113
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
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