Kyrylo Tkachenko vs Denys Kozoriz 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #12398731

Played Aug 11Finished

Kyrylo Tkachenko

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

911119511911––

Denys Kozoriz

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%

Graded at full time

Kyrylo Tkachenko to win

59.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Denys Kozoriz below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 59.9%

76 points played in total.

H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 3–2 Denys Kozoriz Denys Kozoriz has won 2 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 3–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:22

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Tkachenko

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

3-2 in 5

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Tkachenko 1407 vs Kozoriz 1336

Tkachenko

Wrong

both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Tkachenko 60% vs Kozoriz 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Tkachenko 50% vs Kozoriz 30%

Tkachenko

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Tkachenko +1 · Kozoriz +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kozoriz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsTkachenko 1.57 / Kozoriz 2.25

Signal prob.67% / 33%

Edge (Tkachenko)+8.0pp

Setka Cup · #12398731

Tkachenko1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite72% won 64 of 89

Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32

Up 1–0, closes it80% 48 of 60

Kozoriz2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog34% won 35 of 103

Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61

Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeTkachenko3wins

AwayKozoriz2wins

1 of 5 to a deciderTkachenko leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeTkachenko75%3 of 4

AwayKozorizn = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Tkachenko4Kozoriz1n = 5Tkachenko took 4 of 5

S2Tkachenko3Kozoriz2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5

S3Tkachenko2Kozoriz3n = 5Kozoriz took 3 of 5

S4Tkachenko1Kozoriz3n = 4Kozoriz took 3 of 4

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home120%

3–1Four sets, home120%

3–2Decider, home120%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away240%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 5 meetings

MetricTkachenkoKozorizT − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match36.434.4+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTkachenkoKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 168 vs 277 / 52954.2%52.4%91 / 168 vs 277 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.734.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Tkachenko

Tkachenko 1.57/Kozoriz 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

66.9%

Tkachenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Kozoriz won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record5

WMay 13 · 12:25K. Tkachenko—1111133D. Kozoriz—27110

LJul 31 · 14:55K. Tkachenko—1141061D. Kozoriz—81112113

LJul 17 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—211681D. Kozoriz—11411113

WMay 22 · 10:55K. Tkachenko—11812113D. Kozoriz—5111061

WApr 2 · 16:55K. Tkachenko—111195113D. Kozoriz—67111162

K. Tkachenko10

WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870 LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520 LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113 WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113 WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440 WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970 WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113 WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470 LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740 WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101

D. Kozoriz10

WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113 WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113 LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882 WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113 LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370 LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113 WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520 LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113 WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681 WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431

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