TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451381
Played Aug 18Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119117––––
Myhailo Styranets
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeMyhailo Styranets to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Myhailo Styranets below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 60 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Myhailo Styranets at 59.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 5–3 Myhailo Styranets Myhailo Styranets has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Styranets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1402 vs Styranets 1395
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Styranets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 60% vs Styranets 80%
Styranets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +2 · Styranets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Styranets) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 2.50 / Styranets 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 62%
Edge (Styranets)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12451381
Tkachenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog19% won 6 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Styranets1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 87 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayStyranets3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderTkachenko leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko60%3 of 5
AwayStyranets33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko5Styranets3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S2Tkachenko4Styranets4n = 8split evenly
S3Tkachenko4Styranets4n = 8split evenly
S4Tkachenko3Styranets3n = 6split evenly
S5Tkachenko3Styranets2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricTkachenkoStyranetsT − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match42.840.1+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoStyranetsBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 173 vs 130 / 25454.3%51.2%94 / 173 vs 130 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StyranetsTkachenko 2.50/Styranets 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.5%
Styranets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 6 · 15:55K. Tkachenko—11119852M. Styranets—991111113
WJul 7 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—111111113M. Styranets—135931
WJun 30 · 16:25K. Tkachenko—711129113M. Styranets—119101182
LJun 23 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—101080M. Styranets—1212113
WJun 16 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—127119113M. Styranets—101191192
WJun 4 · 14:25K. Tkachenko—118911113M. Styranets—41111682
WMay 27 · 17:25K. Tkachenko—1111113M. Styranets—9340
LMay 20 · 12:25K. Tkachenko—12951162M. Styranets—1011117113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
M. Styranets10
LAug 18 · 17:25V. Kheresko3.7541111113M. Styranets1.25119821WAug 18 · 15:55A. Didyk3.50119741M. Styranets1.2871111113LAug 18 · 13:55O. Melnik3.75111197113M. Styranets1.2556111192WAug 18 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi2.75117381M. Styranets1.4071111113WAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113WAug 6 · 17:25A. Didyk3.40135381M. Styranets1.30111111113WAug 6 · 15:55K. Tkachenko2.2011119852M. Styranets1.61991111113WAug 6 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi2.63118641M. Styranets1.4441111113WAug 6 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.104470M. Styranets1.671111113WAug 5 · 10:55O. Melnik3.007930M. Styranets1.361111113
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