TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451427
Played Aug 18Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113114117––––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 47 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 75.8%
47 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 2–1 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:34What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1382 vs Kheresko 1208
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 40% vs Kheresko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Kheresko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -1 · Kheresko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.30 / Kheresko 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Tkachenko)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451427
Tkachenko1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 67 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Kheresko3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 55 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTkachenko2wins
AwayKheresko1wins
Tkachenko leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko2Kheresko1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S2Tkachenko2Kheresko1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S3Tkachenko2Kheresko1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTkachenkoKhereskoT − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.036.0+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 171 vs 189 / 37253.8%50.8%92 / 171 vs 189 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.30/Kheresko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 11 · 16:55K. Tkachenko—101115113V. Kheresko—1291391
WJul 21 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—1112113V. Kheresko—41070
LJul 14 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—1177141V. Kheresko—61111163
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
V. Kheresko10
LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870
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