TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451404
Played Aug 18Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1618711711––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:33 and never touched — 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 16-18
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 70 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 69.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 6–17 Kyrylo Tkachenko Serhii Kryvoshyi has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1351 vs Tkachenko 1390
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 40% vs Tkachenko 60%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 50% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi +2 · Tkachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 2.75 / Tkachenko 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Tkachenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451404
Kryvoshyi2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 29 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Tkachenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 67 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi2wins
AwayTkachenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkachenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi2Tkachenko8n = 10Tkachenko took 8 of 10
S2Kryvoshyi5Tkachenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kryvoshyi1Tkachenko9n = 10Tkachenko took 9 of 10
S4Kryvoshyi4Tkachenko2n = 6Kryvoshyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiTkachenkoK − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.739.1−6.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 556 vs 93 / 17247.7%54.1%265 / 556 vs 93 / 172Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoKryvoshyi 2.75/Tkachenko 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.3%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi—94110K. Tkachenko—1111133
LAug 4 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi—81111141K. Tkachenko—11513163
WJul 28 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi—81114133K. Tkachenko—11612111
LJul 21 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi—68130K. Tkachenko—1111153
LJul 14 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi—8340K. Tkachenko—1111113
WMay 27 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi—11119113K. Tkachenko—491161
LMay 20 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi—112491K. Tkachenko—91111113
LMay 13 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi—81121172K. Tkachenko—118118113
LMay 5 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi—8930K. Tkachenko—1111113
LApr 28 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi—81161182K. Tkachenko—117117113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113LSep 7 · 05:55H. Oliynyk3.40812711113S. Kryvoshyi1.30111011772WSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113LSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520LSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133LSep 2 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.251011131062O. Maksymkiv3.751271112113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
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