TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088818
Played Sep 7Finished
Hryhoriy Oliynyk
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210711117117
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:31 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kryvoshyi to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Serhii Kryvoshyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Kryvoshyi at 75.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 4–17 Serhii Kryvoshyi Hryhoriy Oliynyk has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-17 in 21
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
gap of 13 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1272 vs Kryvoshyi 1223
Oliynyk
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 60% vs Kryvoshyi 40%
Oliynyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 70% vs Kryvoshyi 30%
Oliynyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk -2 · Kryvoshyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kryvoshyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryvoshyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 3.40 / Kryvoshyi 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Kryvoshyi)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088818
Oliynyk3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Kryvoshyi1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 56 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOliynyk1wins
AwayKryvoshyi9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryvoshyi leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOliynykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKryvoshyi100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oliynyk2Kryvoshyi8n = 10Kryvoshyi took 8 of 10
S2Oliynyk2Kryvoshyi8n = 10Kryvoshyi took 8 of 10
S3Oliynyk2Kryvoshyi8n = 10Kryvoshyi took 8 of 10
S4Oliynyk2Kryvoshyi2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricOliynykKryvoshyiO − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.937.6−8.7per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykKryvoshyiBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 215 vs 253 / 55450.7%45.7%109 / 215 vs 253 / 554Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryvoshyiOliynyk 3.40/Kryvoshyi 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Kryvoshyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oliynyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 04:25H. Oliynyk—7111081S. Kryvoshyi—11912113
LJul 22 · 04:25H. Oliynyk—7790S. Kryvoshyi—1111113
LJul 15 · 06:55H. Oliynyk—61240S. Kryvoshyi—1114113
LMay 28 · 04:55H. Oliynyk—5620S. Kryvoshyi—1111113
LMay 21 · 06:55H. Oliynyk—41170S. Kryvoshyi—1113113
LMay 14 · 06:55H. Oliynyk—91070S. Kryvoshyi—1112113
WMay 6 · 10:55H. Oliynyk—11913113S. Kryvoshyi—9111191
LApr 16 · 04:55H. Oliynyk—93111122S. Kryvoshyi—111129113
LMar 25 · 13:55H. Oliynyk—56100S. Kryvoshyi—1111123
LMar 20 · 18:55H. Oliynyk—11117982S. Kryvoshyi—661111103
H. Oliynyk10
WSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861LSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113LAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113WAug 27 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi3.001129101H. Oliynyk1.3671111123WAug 27 · 15:25H. Oliynyk1.221111113M. Treschetka4.006460WAug 27 · 14:25M. Dunas2.384111091H. Oliynyk1.5311912113WAug 27 · 12:55H. Oliynyk1.2841111113O. Maksymkiv3.50113681LAug 13 · 18:55H. Oliynyk1.53981191D. Kasian2.3811117113WAug 13 · 16:55M. Treschetka4.3311651142H. Oliynyk1.20511115113WAug 13 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.635660H. Oliynyk1.441111113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113LSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520LSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133LSep 2 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.251011131062O. Maksymkiv3.751271112113LSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
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