TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060075
Played Sep 2Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101211713111012611
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched — 76.2% is still 76.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kryvoshyi to win
76.2%
76.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 103 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Kryvoshyi at 76.2%
103 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 4–2 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1280 vs Maksymkiv 1220
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 60% vs Maksymkiv 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 40% vs Maksymkiv 60%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi -2 · Maksymkiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kryvoshyi) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 1.25 / Maksymkiv 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kryvoshyi)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060075
Kryvoshyi1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 65 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 56 of 67
Maksymkiv3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi4wins
AwayMaksymkiv2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKryvoshyi leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyi100%4 of 4
AwayMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi4Maksymkiv2n = 6Kryvoshyi took 4 of 6
S2Kryvoshyi5Maksymkiv1n = 6Kryvoshyi took 5 of 6
S3Kryvoshyi6Maksymkiv0n = 6Kryvoshyi took 6 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home467%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiMaksymkivK − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match34.328.0+6.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 556 vs 369 / 70546.4%52.3%258 / 556 vs 369 / 705Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryvoshyiKryvoshyi 1.25/Maksymkiv 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77%
Kryvoshyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 19 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi—1111133O. Maksymkiv—64110
WJul 15 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi—1311113O. Maksymkiv—11460
WJul 14 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi—1111113O. Maksymkiv—4880
LMay 5 · 13:25S. Kryvoshyi—5101141O. Maksymkiv—11128113
LMar 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi—61111932O. Maksymkiv—119811113
WJan 11 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi—1111113O. Maksymkiv—2840
S. Kryvoshyi10
LSep 7 · 05:55H. Oliynyk3.40812711113S. Kryvoshyi1.30111011772WSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113LSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520LSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133LSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113
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