TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451366
Played Aug 18Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121012109111210––
Orest Melnik
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 94.1% is still 94.1%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
94.1%
94.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 94.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 16–1 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 1 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-1 in 17
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 15 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1392 vs Melnik 1271
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Melnik 100%
Melnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -1 · Melnik +5
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.20 / Melnik 4.33
Signal prob.94% / 6%
Edge (Tkachenko)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12451366
Tkachenko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 67 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Melnik4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkachenko9wins
AwayMelnik1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko90%9 of 10
AwayMelnikn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko10Melnik0n = 10Tkachenko took 10 of 10
S2Tkachenko6Melnik4n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Tkachenko9Melnik1n = 10Tkachenko took 9 of 10
S4Tkachenko2Melnik3n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5Tkachenko2Melnik1n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkachenkoMelnikT − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match39.430.6+8.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 169 vs 184 / 37853.9%48.7%91 / 169 vs 184 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.20/Melnik 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
94.1%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—11711113O. Melnik—611851
WAug 4 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—1111113O. Melnik—6450
WJul 28 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—1111103O. Melnik—3780
WJul 21 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—11817113O. Melnik—3111591
WJul 14 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—118115113O. Melnik—51181162
WJul 7 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—1111113O. Melnik—7770
WJun 30 · 12:55K. Tkachenko—112118113O. Melnik—11181172
WJun 4 · 12:25K. Tkachenko—1311113O. Melnik—11890
WApr 21 · 16:55K. Tkachenko—1511113O. Melnik—13970
LMar 19 · 17:55K. Tkachenko—11119892O. Melnik—961111113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440
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