TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060503
Played Sep 2Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
110110311711911
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 11-0
Set 2 · 11-0
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 74 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 28–15 Denys Kozoriz Denys Kozoriz has won 15 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-15 in 43
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 13 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1255 vs Kozoriz 1328
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Kozoriz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Kozoriz 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Kozoriz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozoriz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.80 / Kozoriz 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kozoriz)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13060503
Melnik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 52 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Kozoriz1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 35 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayKozoriz3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik80%4 of 5
AwayKozoriz40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Kozoriz5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik8Kozoriz2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S3Melnik7Kozoriz3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Melnik6Kozoriz2n = 8Melnik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKozorizM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.629.0+9.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 378 vs 276 / 52346.8%52.8%177 / 378 vs 276 / 523Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.834.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizMelnik 1.80/Kozoriz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik—11113792D. Kozoriz—001111113
WSep 1 · 14:55O. Melnik—61111113D. Kozoriz—118251
WAug 12 · 06:25O. Melnik—11155123D. Kozoriz—71311101
LAug 11 · 15:25O. Melnik—511471D. Kozoriz—11611113
LApr 7 · 13:55O. Melnik—107111182D. Kozoriz—121160113
WNov 26 · 07:25O. Melnik—1111113D. Kozoriz—8480
WNov 25 · 19:55O. Melnik—111111113D. Kozoriz—137241
WNov 5 · 14:55O. Melnik—11811113D. Kozoriz—811861
WOct 30 · 12:25O. Melnik—51111113D. Kozoriz—113561
WOct 29 · 14:46O. Melnik—1111113D. Kozoriz—2410
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3614411113O. Maksymkiv3.001211851
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
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