TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060359
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118311611111––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 62 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 79.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 1–6 Denys Kozoriz Oleh Maksymkiv has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Kozoriz
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1232 vs Kozoriz 1319
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Kozoriz 40%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Kozoriz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +2 · Kozoriz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kozoriz) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 3.75 / Kozoriz 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kozoriz)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060359
Maksymkiv3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Kozoriz1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 56 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv1wins
AwayKozoriz6wins
4 of 7 to a deciderKozoriz leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKozoriz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv2Kozoriz5n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S2Maksymkiv3Kozoriz4n = 7Kozoriz took 4 of 7
S3Maksymkiv2Kozoriz5n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S4Maksymkiv1Kozoriz3n = 4Kozoriz took 3 of 4
S5Maksymkiv1Kozoriz3n = 4Kozoriz took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKozorizM − KBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.141.0−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 706 vs 275 / 52252.4%52.7%370 / 706 vs 275 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.234.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizMaksymkiv 3.75/Kozoriz 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LDec 20 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv—7370D. Kozoriz—1111113
LDec 19 · 08:55O. Maksymkiv—3980D. Kozoriz—1111113
WDec 8 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv—111974113D. Kozoriz—917111172
LDec 7 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv—101111932D. Kozoriz—12381143
LDec 4 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv—101111142D. Kozoriz—128611113
LDec 3 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv—11691172D. Kozoriz—911116103
LNov 12 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv—8640D. Kozoriz—1111113
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
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