TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451411
Played Aug 18Finished
Andriy Didyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117114––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndriy Didyk above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 72.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Andriy Didyk 8–14 Kyrylo Tkachenko Andriy Didyk has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Didyk 1309 vs Tkachenko 1382
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Didyk 60% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Didyk 60% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Didyk +2 · Tkachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Didyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDidyk 2.50 / Tkachenko 1.50
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Tkachenko)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451411
Didyk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 50 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Tkachenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 67 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDidyk4wins
AwayTkachenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDidyk50%3 of 6
AwayTkachenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Didyk6Tkachenko4n = 10Didyk took 6 of 10
S2Didyk4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Didyk3Tkachenko7n = 10Tkachenko took 7 of 10
S4Didyk5Tkachenko3n = 8Didyk took 5 of 8
S5Didyk1Tkachenko2n = 3Tkachenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDidykTkachenkoD − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.439.3−3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDidykTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 454 vs 92 / 17146.3%53.8%210 / 454 vs 92 / 171Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoDidyk 2.50/Tkachenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Didyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk—1111113K. Tkachenko—7740
WAug 6 · 12:25A. Didyk—31111113K. Tkachenko—116941
LAug 4 · 16:25A. Didyk—511381K. Tkachenko—11911113
LJul 21 · 14:25A. Didyk—7113131K. Tkachenko—11911153
LJul 7 · 15:25A. Didyk—11331132K. Tkachenko—911118113
WJun 23 · 16:25A. Didyk—11911153K. Tkachenko—9117131
LJun 16 · 14:25A. Didyk—3890K. Tkachenko—1111113
LMay 27 · 13:55A. Didyk—11551192K. Tkachenko—311119113
LMay 20 · 16:55A. Didyk—1111731K. Tkachenko—91311113
WMay 13 · 14:25A. Didyk—1191111123K. Tkachenko—711134102
A. Didyk10
WSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133WSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:55A. Didyk1.44113811113O. Maksymkiv2.6391111682WSep 2 · 04:55A. Didyk1.4071112113V. Kheresko2.751181061WSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 15:55A. Didyk1.36911118113V. Kheresko3.0011881162LSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:25A. Didyk1.731011511183S. Kryvoshyi2.00128119162
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.57911591D. Kozoriz2.2511911113
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