TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451424
Played Aug 18Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115116911711119
Myhailo Styranets
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 80.3% is still 80.3%
Graded at full timeMyhailo Styranets to win
80.3%
80.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Myhailo Styranets below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Myhailo Styranets at 80.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 7–11 Myhailo Styranets Orest Melnik has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Styranets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Styranets
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1263 vs Styranets 1419
Styranets
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Styranets 100%
Styranets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Styranets 80%
Styranets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Styranets +5
Styranets
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Styranets) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Styranets form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 3.75 / Styranets 1.25
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Styranets)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451424
Melnik3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Styranets1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 87 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik3wins
AwayStyranets7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStyranets leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStyranets87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik2Styranets8n = 10Styranets took 8 of 10
S2Melnik6Styranets4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Melnik3Styranets7n = 10Styranets took 7 of 10
S4Melnik3Styranets4n = 7Styranets took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikStyranetsM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.1−3.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikStyranetsBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 379 vs 129 / 25148.6%51.4%184 / 379 vs 129 / 251Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StyranetsMelnik 3.75/Styranets 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83%
Styranets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 10:55O. Melnik—7930M. Styranets—1111113
LJul 29 · 11:25O. Melnik—711871M. Styranets—11811113
LJul 28 · 16:55O. Melnik—5490M. Styranets—1111113
LJul 15 · 11:25O. Melnik—9201251M. Styranets—111814113
LJul 9 · 05:25O. Melnik—87100M. Styranets—1111123
LJul 8 · 06:25O. Melnik—1011741M. Styranets—12511113
WJul 7 · 13:55O. Melnik—71211113M. Styranets—1110451
WJul 1 · 08:25O. Melnik—11118113M. Styranets—561161
WJun 30 · 14:55O. Melnik—11714123M. Styranets—81112101
LJun 10 · 05:25O. Melnik—7111110112M. Styranets—119312133
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440
M. Styranets10
LAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970LAug 18 · 17:25V. Kheresko3.7541111113M. Styranets1.25119821WAug 18 · 15:55A. Didyk3.50119741M. Styranets1.2871111113WAug 18 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi2.75117381M. Styranets1.4071111113WAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113WAug 6 · 17:25A. Didyk3.40135381M. Styranets1.30111111113WAug 6 · 15:55K. Tkachenko2.2011119852M. Styranets1.61991111113WAug 6 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi2.63118641M. Styranets1.4441111113WAug 6 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.104470M. Styranets1.671111113WAug 5 · 10:55O. Melnik3.007930M. Styranets1.361111113
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