TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367267
Played Aug 6Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119911811511
Myhailo Styranets
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMyhailo Styranets to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Myhailo Styranets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 95 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Myhailo Styranets at 56.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 5–3 Myhailo Styranets Myhailo Styranets has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Styranets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1415 vs Styranets 1382
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Styranets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 70% vs Styranets 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +1 · Styranets +3
Styranets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Styranets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 2.20 / Styranets 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Styranets)-1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12367267
Tkachenko2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog21% won 6 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Styranets1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it81% 68 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayStyranets3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderTkachenko leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko75%3 of 4
AwayStyranets50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko4Styranets4n = 8split evenly
S2Tkachenko3Styranets5n = 8Styranets took 5 of 8
S3Tkachenko5Styranets3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S4Tkachenko3Styranets2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S5Tkachenko3Styranets1n = 4Tkachenko took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricTkachenkoStyranetsT − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.136.5+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoStyranetsBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 161 vs 125 / 24754%50.6%87 / 161 vs 125 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StyranetsTkachenko 2.20/Styranets 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Styranets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Styranets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 28 · 14:25K. Tkachenko—7531M. Styranets—111102
WJul 7 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—111111113M. Styranets—135931
WJun 30 · 16:25K. Tkachenko—711129113M. Styranets—119101182
LJun 23 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—101080M. Styranets—1212113
WJun 16 · 15:25K. Tkachenko—127119113M. Styranets—101191192
WJun 4 · 14:25K. Tkachenko—118911113M. Styranets—41111682
WMay 27 · 17:25K. Tkachenko—1111113M. Styranets—9340
LMay 20 · 12:25K. Tkachenko—12951162M. Styranets—1011117113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101
M. Styranets10
LAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970LAug 18 · 17:25V. Kheresko3.7541111113M. Styranets1.25119821WAug 18 · 15:55A. Didyk3.50119741M. Styranets1.2871111113LAug 18 · 13:55O. Melnik3.75111197113M. Styranets1.2556111192WAug 18 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi2.75117381M. Styranets1.4071111113WAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113WAug 6 · 17:25A. Didyk3.40135381M. Styranets1.30111111113WAug 6 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi2.63118641M. Styranets1.4441111113WAug 6 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.104470M. Styranets1.671111113WAug 5 · 10:55O. Melnik3.007930M. Styranets1.361111113
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