TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406523
Played Aug 12Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210118116––
Roman Mazur
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:33 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Prus to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Roman Mazur below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Prus at 89.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 10–0 Roman Mazur Roman Mazur has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Prus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Prus
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1391 vs Mazur 1272
Prus
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 100% vs Mazur 80%
Prus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 70% vs Mazur 50%
Prus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus +5 · Mazur +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Prus) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazur form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 1.20 / Mazur 4.33
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Prus)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12406523
Prus1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Mazur4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 12 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus10wins
AwayMazur0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPrus leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus100%9 of 9
AwayMazurn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus9Mazur1n = 10Prus took 9 of 10
S2Prus6Mazur4n = 10Prus took 6 of 10
S3Prus9Mazur1n = 10Prus took 9 of 10
S4Prus3Mazur3n = 6split evenly
S5Prus3Mazur0n = 3Prus took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusMazurP − MBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.829.2+10.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusMazurBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 433 vs 131 / 26549.4%49.4%214 / 433 vs 131 / 265Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrusPrus 1.20/Mazur 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.3%
Prus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Prus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 26 · 06:25S. Prus—1113113R. Mazur—41160
WJan 21 · 12:55S. Prus—1211113R. Mazur—10390
WSep 23 · 14:55S. Prus—11511113R. Mazur—711561
WSep 14 · 08:55S. Prus—1111123R. Mazur—57100
WAug 24 · 09:55S. Prus—111211113R. Mazur—114261
WAug 17 · 04:25S. Prus—911118113R. Mazur—11561182
WAug 3 · 04:25S. Prus—11113113R. Mazur—981131
WJul 10 · 11:55S. Prus—118116113R. Mazur—61161132
WJan 19 · 10:25S. Prus—1111113R. Mazur—6860
WJan 3 · 15:55S. Prus—114119113R. Mazur—71181192
S. Prus10
WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 04:55S. Prus1.73117611113O. Sydorchuk2.0091111852LSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163WSep 5 · 16:25S. Prus2.001111113O. Sydorchuk1.736740WSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus3.401111113I. Kvak1.306380LSep 5 · 13:25S. Prus2.25571151M. Slozka1.5711115113LSep 5 · 11:55S. Prus3.254111261I. Pytsko1.3311714113
R. Mazur10
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113WAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123LAug 12 · 10:08R. Mazur4.332780S. Prus1.201111113WAug 12 · 06:55V. Kheresko2.256101181R. Mazur1.5711128113WAug 12 · 05:25R. Mazur1.40411119113O. Melnik2.7511861152WMay 28 · 11:25R. Mazur1.8381111143S. Kryvoshyi1.831192121
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