TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406515
Played Aug 12Finished
Roman Mazur
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6118111012––––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Mazur above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Roman Mazur 17–8 Denys Kozoriz Denys Kozoriz has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:33What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Mazur
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mazur 1272 vs Kozoriz 1336
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mazur 80% vs Kozoriz 60%
Mazur
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mazur 50% vs Kozoriz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mazur +4 · Kozoriz -2
Mazur
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozoriz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazur form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMazur 2.00 / Kozoriz 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kozoriz)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12406515
Mazur2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 12 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Kozoriz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 60 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMazur4wins
AwayKozoriz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKozoriz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMazur100%3 of 3
AwayKozoriz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mazur3Kozoriz7n = 10Kozoriz took 7 of 10
S2Mazur5Kozoriz5n = 10split evenly
S3Mazur7Kozoriz3n = 10Mazur took 7 of 10
S4Mazur2Kozoriz4n = 6Kozoriz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMazurKozorizM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.132.5+0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMazurKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 265 vs 279 / 53349.4%52.4%131 / 265 vs 279 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.934.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizMazur 2.00/Kozoriz 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur—68100D. Kozoriz—1111123
LMay 14 · 06:25R. Mazur—7750D. Kozoriz—1111113
LMay 13 · 13:25R. Mazur—71111652D. Kozoriz—113511113
WApr 8 · 06:55R. Mazur—1111113D. Kozoriz—5250
LApr 7 · 15:55R. Mazur—6712101D. Kozoriz—111110123
LJan 22 · 12:25R. Mazur—931281D. Kozoriz—111110113
WJan 21 · 15:55R. Mazur—1111113D. Kozoriz—5260
LJan 14 · 18:55R. Mazur—811371D. Kozoriz—11911113
WDec 31 · 05:25R. Mazur—91111113D. Kozoriz—113721
WDec 30 · 13:55R. Mazur—11713133D. Kozoriz—71111111
R. Mazur10
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113WAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:08R. Mazur4.332780S. Prus1.201111113LAug 12 · 08:55S. Prus1.2081211113R. Mazur4.331110861WAug 12 · 06:55V. Kheresko2.256101181R. Mazur1.5711128113WAug 12 · 05:25R. Mazur1.40411119113O. Melnik2.7511861152WMay 28 · 11:25R. Mazur1.8381111143S. Kryvoshyi1.831192121
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
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