TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002295
Played Aug 24Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211911711––––
Pavel Vinansky
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Pavel Vinansky below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 60.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 3–5 Pavel Vinansky Ondrej Kus has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vinansky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Vinansky
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1412 vs Vinansky 1619
Vinansky
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 40% vs Vinansky 80%
Vinansky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 60% vs Vinansky 80%
Vinansky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus -1 · Vinansky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vinansky) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vinansky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.10 / Vinansky 1.67
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vinansky)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #13002295
Kus2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Vinansky1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite81% won 30 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKus3wins
AwayVinansky5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderVinansky leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus60%3 of 5
AwayVinansky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus5Vinansky3n = 8Kus took 5 of 8
S2Kus1Vinansky7n = 8Vinansky took 7 of 8
S3Kus4Vinansky4n = 8split evenly
S4Kus3Vinansky3n = 6split evenly
S5Kus1Vinansky2n = 3Vinansky took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricKusVinanskyK − VBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.639.6−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusVinanskyBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 487 vs 62 / 10350.3%60.2%245 / 487 vs 62 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyKus 2.10/Vinansky 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vinansky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 24 · 10:45O. Kus—1151110113P. Vinansky—81171292
WAug 10 · 14:45O. Kus—12911123P. Vinansky—10117101
LAug 6 · 16:10O. Kus—117761P. Vinansky—61111113
LJul 2 · 10:40O. Kus—11711872P. Vinansky—911811113
LJun 21 · 17:10O. Kus—5740P. Vinansky—1111113
WJun 21 · 14:40O. Kus—11119113P. Vinansky—991141
LJun 19 · 11:15O. Kus—99111132P. Vinansky—111162113
LJun 10 · 11:15O. Kus—101140P. Vinansky—1213113
O. Kus10
LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192WAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr1.80514751P. Vinansky1.91111211113LAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak2.00129311113P. Vinansky1.73101111662LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281LAug 24 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.4481171292O. Kus2.631151110113
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