TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023884
Played Aug 27Finished
Adam Kanak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210911311116116
Pavel Vinansky
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Pavel Vinansky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 54.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 3–2 Pavel Vinansky Pavel Vinansky has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vinansky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1497 vs Vinansky 1609
Vinansky
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Vinansky 40%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 50% vs Vinansky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +1 · Vinansky -3
Vinansky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vinansky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vinansky form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 2.00 / Vinansky 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vinansky)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13023884
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog63% won 17 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Vinansky1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 36 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKanak3wins
AwayVinansky2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKanak leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVinansky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak2Vinansky3n = 5Vinansky took 3 of 5
S2Kanak3Vinansky2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S3Kanak1Vinansky4n = 5Vinansky took 4 of 5
S4Kanak2Vinansky2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKanakVinanskyK − VBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.241.6−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakVinanskyBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 67 vs 67 / 11256.7%59.8%38 / 67 vs 67 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyKanak 2.00/Vinansky 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak—129311113P. Vinansky—101111662
LAug 6 · 17:13A. Kanak—811961P. Vinansky—11311113
WAug 6 · 15:10A. Kanak—1311136113P. Vinansky—157111192
LAug 4 · 07:10A. Kanak—45120P. Vinansky—1111143
WJul 13 · 10:40A. Kanak—14115163P. Vinansky—12211141
A. Kanak10
LSep 10 · 21:18A. Kanak1.83118111292J. Travnicek1.831311810113WSep 10 · 20:15A. Kanak1.73118711113P. Marsalek2.0081111792WSep 10 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.73411881A. Kanak2.0011811113LSep 10 · 18:15I. Heuman1.8311311113A. Kanak1.83611661WSep 8 · 17:30A. Kanak1.441110912113V. Konvicka2.63312111052WSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 14:45A. Kanak1.571111113V. Konvicka2.252980LSep 8 · 13:45A. Kanak1.6176100D. Osvald2.201111123WSep 7 · 21:10A. Kanak1.6781311153T. Molin2.1011114131WSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192WAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr1.80514751P. Vinansky1.91111211113LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101WAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281LAug 24 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.4481171292O. Kus2.631151110113
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