TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023868
Played Aug 27Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111412711511––
Pavel Vinansky
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Pavel Vinansky below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 0–2 Pavel Vinansky Dalibor Velky Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1663 vs Vinansky 1609
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Vinansky 20%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 80% vs Vinansky 50%
Jr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Vinansky -4
Vinansky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vinansky form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Vinansky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13023868
Jr1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 77 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it66% 57 of 86
Vinansky1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog57% won 16 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayVinansky2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVinansky leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJrVinanskyJ − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.545.0−10.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrVinanskyBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 475 vs 67 / 11250.7%59.8%241 / 475 vs 67 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Vinansky 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vinansky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 27 · 08:43D. Jr—43111192P. Vinansky—111157113
LAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr—514751P. Vinansky—111211113
D. Jr10
WSep 8 · 12:35T. Kindl1.67791351D. Jr2.10111111113LSep 8 · 12:10D. Jr2.254990T. Kindl1.571111113LSep 8 · 10:40J. Skvrna1.571141111113D. Jr2.2561191362LSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113LSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192LAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak2.00129311113P. Vinansky1.73101111662LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101WAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281LAug 24 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.4481171292O. Kus2.631151110113
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