TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482405
Played Aug 24Finished
Pavel Vinansky
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111157111210911
Ondrej Kus
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Vinansky above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 74.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Vinansky 5–2 Ondrej Kus Ondrej Kus has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vinansky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Vinansky
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinansky 1628 vs Kus 1409
Vinansky
Wrong
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinansky 80% vs Kus 60%
Vinansky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinansky 90% vs Kus 60%
Vinansky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinansky +3 · Kus +1
Vinansky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Vinansky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinansky 1.44 / Kus 2.63
Signal prob.75% / 26%
Edge (Vinansky)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12482405
Vinansky1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite81% won 30 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Kus2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVinansky5wins
AwayKus2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVinansky leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinansky100%3 of 3
AwayKus50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinansky3Kus4n = 7Kus took 4 of 7
S2Vinansky6Kus1n = 7Vinansky took 6 of 7
S3Vinansky4Kus3n = 7Vinansky took 4 of 7
S4Vinansky2Kus3n = 5Kus took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVinanskyKusV − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.635.0+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinanskyKusBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 101 vs 244 / 48560.4%50.3%61 / 101 vs 244 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyVinansky 1.44/Kus 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.5%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 10 · 14:45P. Vinansky—10117101O. Kus—12911123
WAug 6 · 16:10P. Vinansky—61111113O. Kus—117761
WJul 2 · 10:40P. Vinansky—911811113O. Kus—11711872
WJun 21 · 17:10P. Vinansky—1111113O. Kus—5740
LJun 21 · 14:40P. Vinansky—991141O. Kus—11119113
WJun 19 · 11:15P. Vinansky—111162113O. Kus—99111132
WJun 10 · 11:15P. Vinansky—1213113O. Kus—101140
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192WAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr1.80514751P. Vinansky1.91111211113LAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak2.00129311113P. Vinansky1.73101111662LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101WAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281
O. Kus10
LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750LAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113
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