TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109775
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81114128111012––
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 86 set 4, 10-12
86 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 4–6 Lukas Dzida Ondrej Kus has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kus beat Dzida 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Dzida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.50 / Dzida 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Dzida)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13109775
Kus2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 74 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Dzida1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 41 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 26 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus4wins
AwayDzida6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDzida leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus60%3 of 5
AwayDzida80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus5Dzida5n = 10split evenly
S2Kus4Dzida6n = 10Dzida took 6 of 10
S3Kus3Dzida7n = 10Dzida took 7 of 10
S4Kus3Dzida3n = 6split evenly
S5Kus1Dzida2n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusDzidaK − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.538.1−4.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 515 vs 102 / 19249.7%53.1%256 / 515 vs 102 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaKus 2.50/Dzida 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 12:10O. Kus—115118113L. Dzida—71171192
LJul 31 · 16:39O. Kus—31190L. Dzida—1113113
LJul 31 · 16:15O. Kus—3640L. Dzida—1111113
LJul 24 · 10:15O. Kus—11511942L. Dzida—711911113
LJul 2 · 10:10O. Kus—11127852L. Dzida—1101111113
LJun 10 · 10:15O. Kus—87120L. Dzida—1111143
WJun 4 · 09:45O. Kus—11119113L. Dzida—891171
WJun 3 · 14:40O. Kus—61111113L. Dzida—118831
LMay 26 · 16:34O. Kus—9570L. Dzida—1111113
WMay 26 · 14:10O. Kus—11114153L. Dzida—8911131
O. Kus10
WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 18:40O. Kus1.67811117113K. Przeczek2.1011951192
L. Dzida10
LSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 10:40T. Kindl1.831213113L. Dzida1.83101190LSep 10 · 10:10R. Solle1.73111111113L. Dzida2.00991391WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841
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