TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008257
Played Aug 25Finished
Pavel Vinansky
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121131210––
Ales Drozd
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 76.8% is still 76.8%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
76.8%
76.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Vinansky above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 76.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Vinansky 6–4 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vinansky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Vinansky
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinansky 1626 vs Drozd 1453
Vinansky
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinansky 80% vs Drozd 40%
Vinansky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinansky 80% vs Drozd 40%
Vinansky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinansky +2 · Drozd -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Vinansky)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinansky 1.36 / Drozd 3.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Vinansky)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #13008257
Vinansky1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite81% won 33 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Drozd3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVinansky6wins
AwayDrozd4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVinansky leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinansky83.3%5 of 6
AwayDrozd75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinansky6Drozd4n = 10Vinansky took 6 of 10
S2Vinansky3Drozd7n = 10Drozd took 7 of 10
S3Vinansky6Drozd4n = 10Vinansky took 6 of 10
S4Vinansky3Drozd3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVinanskyDrozdV − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.235.4+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinanskyDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 104 vs 127 / 25060.6%50.8%63 / 104 vs 127 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyVinansky 1.36/Drozd 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.8%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vinansky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky—1112113A. Drozd—71090
WAug 19 · 16:15P. Vinansky—11911113A. Drozd—511651
WAug 4 · 09:10P. Vinansky—11113113A. Drozd—681151
LAug 4 · 08:10P. Vinansky—1171061A. Drozd—71112113
LJun 6 · 13:15P. Vinansky—67110A. Drozd—1111133
WJun 6 · 11:10P. Vinansky—1691111113A. Drozd—18118642
WMay 31 · 17:15P. Vinansky—1371110113A. Drozd—111191262
LMay 31 · 15:10P. Vinansky—681181A. Drozd—11115113
WMay 5 · 12:45P. Vinansky—1112113A. Drozd—91080
LMay 5 · 11:10P. Vinansky—91060A. Drozd—1112113
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192WAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr1.80514751P. Vinansky1.91111211113LAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak2.00129311113P. Vinansky1.73101111662LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281LAug 24 · 10:45P. Vinansky1.4481171292O. Kus2.631151110113
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Vinansky
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A. Drozd
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