TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482039
Played Aug 24Finished
Pavel Vinansky
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210119––––
Ales Drozd
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timePavel Vinansky to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Vinansky above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 60 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Vinansky at 70.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Vinansky 5–4 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vinansky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinansky 1620 vs Drozd 1471
Vinansky
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinansky 80% vs Drozd 60%
Vinansky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinansky 90% vs Drozd 60%
Vinansky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinansky +2 · Drozd +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Vinansky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinansky 1.50 / Drozd 2.50
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Vinansky)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12482039
Vinansky1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite81% won 30 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Drozd2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 32 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVinansky5wins
AwayDrozd4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderVinansky leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinansky80%4 of 5
AwayDrozd75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinansky5Drozd4n = 9Vinansky took 5 of 9
S2Vinansky2Drozd7n = 9Drozd took 7 of 9
S3Vinansky5Drozd4n = 9Vinansky took 5 of 9
S4Vinansky3Drozd3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricVinanskyDrozdV − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.636.4+1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinanskyDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 100 vs 126 / 24660%51.2%60 / 100 vs 126 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinanskyVinansky 1.50/Drozd 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Vinansky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vinansky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 19 · 16:15P. Vinansky—11911113A. Drozd—511651
WAug 4 · 09:10P. Vinansky—11113113A. Drozd—681151
LAug 4 · 08:10P. Vinansky—1171061A. Drozd—71112113
LJun 6 · 13:15P. Vinansky—67110A. Drozd—1111133
WJun 6 · 11:10P. Vinansky—1691111113A. Drozd—18118642
WMay 31 · 17:15P. Vinansky—1371110113A. Drozd—111191262
LMay 31 · 15:10P. Vinansky—681181A. Drozd—11115113
WMay 5 · 12:45P. Vinansky—1112113A. Drozd—91080
LMay 5 · 11:10P. Vinansky—91060A. Drozd—1112113
P. Vinansky10
WAug 27 · 08:43P. Vinansky1.80111157113D. Jr1.9143111192WAug 27 · 07:45D. Jr1.80514751P. Vinansky1.91111211113LAug 27 · 07:15A. Kanak2.00129311113P. Vinansky1.73101111662LAug 27 · 06:15P. Vinansky1.731311811112J. Przybyla2.001181113133LAug 25 · 09:10L. Kantor2.10111110173P. Vinansky1.676712151LAug 25 · 07:45P. Vinansky1.5061141232L. Kantor2.501161110113WAug 25 · 06:45P. Vinansky1.401111113O. Kus2.756750WAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101WAug 24 · 13:15O. Kus2.102970P. Vinansky1.671111113WAug 24 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.5791111113T. Lysek2.25117281
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Drozd
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