TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008261
Played Aug 25Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711711––––
Ales Drozd
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 58.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 7–6 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1390 vs Drozd 1434
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 20% vs Drozd 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 40% vs Drozd 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus -4 · Drozd -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.25 / Drozd 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Drozd)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13008261
Kus2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 71 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Drozd1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 44 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus6wins
AwayDrozd4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKus leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus83.3%5 of 6
AwayDrozd75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus6Drozd4n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S2Kus4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S3Kus4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S4Kus3Drozd1n = 4Kus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusDrozdK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.532.9+1.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 490 vs 127 / 25250%50.4%245 / 490 vs 127 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdKus 2.25/Drozd 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus—91170A. Drozd—1113113
LAug 16 · 16:10O. Kus—116781A. Drozd—91111113
WJul 6 · 11:45O. Kus—1111113A. Drozd—5680
LJun 23 · 17:25O. Kus—9790A. Drozd—1111113
WJun 23 · 15:10O. Kus—11811113A. Drozd—711881
LMay 27 · 09:05O. Kus—8580A. Drozd—1111113
WMay 27 · 06:10O. Kus—1111113A. Drozd—9890
WMar 9 · 07:10O. Kus—9111011113A. Drozd—11812662
WMar 4 · 14:45O. Kus—1111113A. Drozd—3790
WFeb 6 · 07:15O. Kus—1151011113A. Drozd—91112852
O. Kus10
LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Kus
Nothing scheduled
A. Drozd
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