TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008295
Played Aug 25Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611911––––
Lukas Kantor
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Lukas Kantor below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 4–2 Lukas Kantor Lukas Kantor has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:57What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Drozd
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1432 vs Kantor 1544
Kantor
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 20% vs Kantor 100%
Kantor
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 40% vs Kantor 60%
Kantor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -2 · Kantor +5
Kantor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kantor) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kantor form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.80 / Kantor 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kantor)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13008295
Drozd1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 45 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Kantor1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 57 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDrozd4wins
AwayKantor2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderDrozd leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozdn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKantor50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd2Kantor4n = 6Kantor took 4 of 6
S2Drozd4Kantor2n = 6Drozd took 4 of 6
S3Drozd1Kantor5n = 6Kantor took 5 of 6
S4Drozd3Kantor1n = 4Drozd took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDrozdKantorD − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.837.5−0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdKantorBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 254 vs 163 / 32450.4%50.3%128 / 254 vs 163 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KantorDrozd 1.80/Kantor 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kantor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kantor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd—7690L. Kantor—1111113
LJul 15 · 07:45A. Drozd—95150L. Kantor—1111173
WJun 30 · 10:45A. Drozd—71111133L. Kantor—1189111
WFeb 17 · 10:40A. Drozd—131124113L. Kantor—113111142
WDec 15 · 08:15A. Drozd—111110113L. Kantor—571291
WDec 12 · 11:10A. Drozd—511611113L. Kantor—11311972
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
L. Kantor10
WSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes1.4091270L. Kantor2.751114113LSep 9 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.3611117113L. Kantor3.00771171LSep 9 · 11:10L. Kantor2.63691161R. Benes1.4411118113LSep 9 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.5710141511113L. Kantor2.25121217592LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113WSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112LSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101LSep 3 · 12:45L. Kantor2.208890J. Krupnik1.611111113LSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191
Upcoming Matches
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