TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482053
Played Aug 24Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1196116111513811
Tomas Lysek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 0–1 Tomas Lysek Ales Drozd has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lysek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1462 vs Lysek 1460
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Lysek 20%
Drozd
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 50% vs Lysek 30%
Drozd
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Lysek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 2.00 / Lysek 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Drozd)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #12482053
Drozd2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 32 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Lysek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDrozd0wins
AwayLysek1wins
Lysek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDrozdLysekD − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.042.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 247 vs 114 / 21451%53.3%126 / 247 vs 114 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 2.00/Lysek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 5 · 06:45A. Drozd—1191041T. Lysek—81112113
A. Drozd10
LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113WAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
T. Lysek
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