TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114163
Played Sep 11Finished
Karel Baros
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111171113118115
Ales Drozd
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Baros above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 93 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Karel Baros at 56.6%
93 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 2–1 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1525 vs Drozd 1461
Baros
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Drozd 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 60% vs Drozd 40%
Baros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +1 · Drozd +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Baros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.67 / Drozd 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Baros)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13114163
Baros1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it81% 43 of 53
Drozd2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 30 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaros2wins
AwayDrozd1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBaros leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros66.7%2 of 3
AwayDrozdn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros3Drozd0n = 3Baros took 3 of 3
S2Baros1Drozd2n = 3Drozd took 2 of 3
S3Baros2Drozd1n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
S4Baros2Drozd1n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBarosDrozdB − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match41.340.3+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 265 vs 129 / 25554.7%50.6%145 / 265 vs 129 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 1.67/Drozd 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 19 · 13:45K. Baros—11311113A. Drozd—511691
LMar 20 · 16:10K. Baros—117111052A. Drozd—911812113
WJan 31 · 15:45K. Baros—11157113A. Drozd—6131191
K. Baros10
WSep 11 · 13:40K. Baros1.8011611113O. Skvor1.91711661LSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113LSep 8 · 14:15K. Baros1.8349100V. Konvicka1.831111123WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113
A. Drozd10
WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113WAug 25 · 08:15O. Kus2.256770A. Drozd1.571111113LAug 25 · 07:15A. Drozd1.807690L. Kantor1.911111113LAug 25 · 05:45P. Vinansky1.36111011123A. Drozd3.008123101LAug 24 · 12:45T. Lysek1.8011811113A. Drozd1.91911491WAug 24 · 12:15O. Kus2.2591170A. Drozd1.571113113LAug 24 · 11:15A. Drozd2.0011661582T. Lysek1.739111113113LAug 24 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.501112113A. Drozd2.5071090WAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik2.107780A. Drozd1.671111113
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