TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099736
Played Sep 8Finished
Karel Baros
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711211––––
David Osvald
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Baros above · David Osvald below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 51 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Karel Baros at 57.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 1–3 David Osvald Karel Baros has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Baros beat Osvald 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Osvald
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1531 vs Osvald 1474
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Osvald 40%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 60% vs Osvald 30%
Baros
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -1 · Osvald -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osvald) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.90 / Osvald 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osvald)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13099736
Baros1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 21 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Osvald1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 31 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBaros1wins
AwayOsvald3wins
Osvald leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarosn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOsvald100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros1Osvald3n = 4Osvald took 3 of 4
S2Baros1Osvald3n = 4Osvald took 3 of 4
S3Baros1Osvald3n = 4Osvald took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricBarosOsvaldB − OBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match27.035.2−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 263 vs 88 / 17054.8%51.8%144 / 263 vs 88 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldBaros 1.90/Osvald 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 8 · 15:15K. Baros—11512113D. Osvald—7111051
LJul 28 · 14:45K. Baros—7670D. Osvald—1111113
LJun 25 · 15:40K. Baros—8920D. Osvald—1111113
LJun 16 · 14:15K. Baros—811741D. Osvald—11911113
K. Baros10
LSep 8 · 15:45A. Kanak1.5051311113K. Baros2.501111741WSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113LSep 8 · 14:15K. Baros1.8349100V. Konvicka1.831111123WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770
D. Osvald10
LSep 8 · 16:15V. Konvicka1.671081111123D. Osvald2.10121157102LSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113WSep 8 · 13:45A. Kanak1.6176100D. Osvald2.201111123WSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113LSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113LSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113LAug 12 · 13:20D. Branny1.8011811123D. Osvald1.914117101LAug 12 · 12:15D. Branny1.8311138113D. Osvald1.838111151WAug 12 · 11:15D. Osvald1.831111113J. Przybyla1.839540
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