TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13094841
Played Sep 7Finished
Adam Kanak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
81113111141513––
Tomas Molin
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 86 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Adam Kanak at 57.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 3–2 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kanak beat Molin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1609 vs Molin 1524
Kanak
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Molin 40%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 70% vs Molin 40%
Kanak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +3 · Molin +1
Kanak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kanak) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.67 / Molin 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kanak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13094841
Kanak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 26 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Molin2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 21 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKanak3wins
AwayMolin2wins
Kanak leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMolin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak2Molin3n = 5Molin took 3 of 5
S2Kanak3Molin2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S3Kanak3Molin2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S4Kanak2Molin1n = 3Kanak took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKanakMolinK − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.835.0+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 91 vs 147 / 28259.3%52.1%54 / 91 vs 147 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKanak 1.67/Molin 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 21:10A. Kanak—81311153T. Molin—11114131
WSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak—91115113T. Molin—1181361
WJul 21 · 21:13A. Kanak—1111113T. Molin—9770
LJul 21 · 19:45A. Kanak—89100T. Molin—1111123
LJul 20 · 14:45A. Kanak—114651T. Molin—81111113
A. Kanak10
WSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860WSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361WSep 7 · 17:40A. Kanak1.531111113D. Branny2.384990LSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140LSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112WSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123WSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381WSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892
T. Molin10
WSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990LSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361LSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770
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