TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13090969
Played Sep 7Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101179111210––
Tomas Molin
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Molin at 63.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 2–1 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1498 vs Molin 1546
Molin
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Molin 60%
Molin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Molin 50%
Molin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Molin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.73 / Molin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Molin)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13090969
Cizek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 51 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Molin2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 21 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayMolin1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderCizek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Molin2n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S2Cizek1Molin2n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S3Cizek3Molin0n = 3Cizek took 3 of 3
S4Cizek2Molin1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekMolinC − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.739.7+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 462 vs 146 / 27847.8%52.5%221 / 462 vs 146 / 278Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.73/Molin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WFeb 4 · 18:40A. Cizek—11811113T. Molin—811541
LJan 9 · 22:25A. Cizek—89111152T. Molin—111196113
WJan 9 · 19:40A. Cizek—811118113T. Molin—11681172
A. Cizek10
LSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860LSep 7 · 19:10D. Branny2.101211113A. Cizek1.6710870WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851
T. Molin10
LSep 7 · 18:40A. Kanak1.9191115113T. Molin1.801181361LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350
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