TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091869
Played Sep 7Finished
Adam Kanak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181513116––
Tomas Molin
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 84 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Molin at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 1–2 Tomas Molin Adam Kanak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Molin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1568 vs Molin 1541
Kanak
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Molin 40%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 60% vs Molin 40%
Kanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +1 · Molin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Molin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.91 / Molin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Molin)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13091869
Kanak1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog64% won 23 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Molin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it71% 35 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKanak1wins
AwayMolin2wins
Molin leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak2Molin1n = 3Kanak took 2 of 3
S2Kanak1Molin2n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S3Kanak1Molin2n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKanakMolinK − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match28.732.7−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 88 vs 146 / 27958%52.3%51 / 88 vs 146 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinKanak 1.91/Molin 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 21 · 21:13A. Kanak—1111113T. Molin—9770
LJul 21 · 19:45A. Kanak—89100T. Molin—1111123
LJul 20 · 14:45A. Kanak—114651T. Molin—81111113
A. Kanak10
WSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak1.731111113A. Cizek2.009860WSep 7 · 17:40A. Kanak1.531111113D. Branny2.384990LSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140LSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112WSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123WSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381WSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272
T. Molin10
WSep 7 · 20:10T. Molin1.571111113D. Branny2.253990LSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7312119123T. Molin2.0010711101LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113
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