TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476119
Played Aug 23Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6119111412117911
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:36 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 71.7%
101 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 27–3 Marcin Marchlewski Marcin Marchlewski has won 3 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-3 in 30
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 24 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1759 vs Marchlewski 1548
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 80% vs Marchlewski 40%
Mlynarski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 60% vs Marchlewski 40%
Mlynarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski +1 · Marchlewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.30 / Marchlewski 3.40
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Mlynarski)+15.8pp
TT Elite Series · #12476119
Mlynarski1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 121 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it81% 89 of 110
Marchlewski3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 70 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski8wins
AwayMarchlewski2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMarchlewski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski6Marchlewski4n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S2Mlynarski7Marchlewski3n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S3Mlynarski9Marchlewski1n = 10Mlynarski took 9 of 10
S4Mlynarski5Marchlewski1n = 6Mlynarski took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiMarchlewskiMlynarski − MarchlewskiBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.628.8+9.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 256 vs 476 / 99357.8%47.9%148 / 256 vs 476 / 993Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.30/Marchlewski 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
88.1%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 22:10F. Mlynarski—1111113M. Marchlewski—6160
LAug 8 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—1161211112M. Marchlewski—811147133
WJul 26 · 24:20F. Mlynarski—81111113M. Marchlewski—118681
WJul 25 · 22:05F. Mlynarski—1111113M. Marchlewski—7670
WJul 25 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—1111113M. Marchlewski—6730
WJul 18 · 23:15F. Mlynarski—91111113M. Marchlewski—113671
WJul 18 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—71311113M. Marchlewski—1111841
WJul 18 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—111311113M. Marchlewski—815851
WJul 11 · 23:15F. Mlynarski—1111113M. Marchlewski—5910
LJul 11 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—931191M. Marchlewski—11118113
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100
M. Marchlewski10
LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
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