TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476123
Played Aug 23Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119115511911811
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
1.82
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Zochniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
119115511911811
H2H Jakub Zochniak 8–17 Marcin Marchlewski Jakub Zochniak has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:49What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (50%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-17 in 25
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1546 vs Marchlewski 1542
Zochniak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 80% vs Marchlewski 40%
Zochniak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 70% vs Marchlewski 40%
Zochniak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak +3 · Marchlewski -2
Zochniak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 1.85 / Marchlewski 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marchlewski)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #12476123
Zochniak1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 157 of 460
Down 0–1, comes back13% 34 of 263
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 144
Marchlewski1.82
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 110 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak3wins
AwayMarchlewski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak50%3 of 6
AwayMarchlewski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak6Marchlewski4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S2Zochniak5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Zochniak2Marchlewski8n = 10Marchlewski took 8 of 10
S4Zochniak3Marchlewski6n = 9Marchlewski took 6 of 9
S5Zochniak1Marchlewski2n = 3Marchlewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakMarchlewskiZ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.4−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1201 / 2267 vs 474 / 98953%47.9%1201 / 2267 vs 474 / 989Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiZochniak 1.85/Marchlewski 1.82
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 22:35J. Zochniak—681181M. Marchlewski—11115113
LJul 12 · 24:45J. Zochniak—11860M. Marchlewski—1311113
LJul 11 · 22:30J. Zochniak—1359101M. Marchlewski—111111123
WJul 11 · 20:30J. Zochniak—111211133M. Marchlewski—4146111
WJul 11 · 02:15J. Zochniak—111176113M. Marchlewski—68111162
LJul 10 · 23:55J. Zochniak—128101182M. Marchlewski—1011125113
LJun 6 · 10:55J. Zochniak—911771M. Marchlewski—11811113
LJun 6 · 07:55J. Zochniak—911971M. Marchlewski—11711113
WApr 25 · 09:55J. Zochniak—11119113M. Marchlewski—741181
LApr 24 · 18:30J. Zochniak—111166112M. Marchlewski—771111133
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
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