TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476120
Played Aug 23Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118511117––
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 57.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 2–5 Marcin Marchlewski Maciej Kolek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Marchlewski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1576 vs Marchlewski 1559
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 30% vs Marchlewski 50%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -4 · Marchlewski -1
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.83 / Marchlewski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marchlewski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12476120
Kolek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Marchlewski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarchlewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek2Marchlewski5n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S2Kolek4Marchlewski3n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S3Kolek4Marchlewski3n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S4Kolek1Marchlewski6n = 7Marchlewski took 6 of 7
S5Kolek2Marchlewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKolekMarchlewskiK − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match42.144.4−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime648 / 1305 vs 476 / 99249.7%48%648 / 1305 vs 476 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiKolek 1.83/Marchlewski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJun 7 · 05:20M. Kolek—5111110113M. Marchlewski—11681252
LJun 6 · 06:35M. Kolek—8111111102M. Marchlewski—116138123
LApr 24 · 17:45M. Kolek—411881M. Marchlewski—11911113
LMar 22 · 11:20M. Kolek—411991M. Marchlewski—11811113
LMar 13 · 21:10M. Kolek—114141192M. Marchlewski—8111213113
LFeb 21 · 21:40M. Kolek—791191M. Marchlewski—11113113
WJan 23 · 21:05M. Kolek—118134113M. Marchlewski—611111162
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
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