TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476036
Played Aug 23Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115811116411
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 57.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 8–8 Marcin Marchlewski Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1551 vs Marchlewski 1542
Chmielowski
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -2 · Marchlewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.73 / Marchlewski 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #12476036
Chmielowski1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it74% 86 of 117
Marchlewski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 70 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski6wins
AwayMarchlewski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChmielowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski60%3 of 5
AwayMarchlewski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Chmielowski4Marchlewski6n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S3Chmielowski6Marchlewski4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S4Chmielowski5Marchlewski4n = 9Chmielowski took 5 of 9
S5Chmielowski3Marchlewski1n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiMarchlewskiC − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.438.8+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 715 vs 475 / 99048.4%48%346 / 715 vs 475 / 990Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.73/Marchlewski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 23:15J. Chmielowski—3161171M. Marchlewski—11187113
WJul 31 · 21:20J. Chmielowski—991111113M. Marchlewski—11114682
WMay 24 · 19:05J. Chmielowski—11911113M. Marchlewski—811681
LMay 24 · 01:10J. Chmielowski—1123941M. Marchlewski—42511113
WMay 23 · 22:45J. Chmielowski—81111113M. Marchlewski—115481
WMay 23 · 20:15J. Chmielowski—119711113M. Marchlewski—81111842
LMay 16 · 16:45J. Chmielowski—118111192M. Marchlewski—511513113
WMay 15 · 16:40J. Chmielowski—911511113M. Marchlewski—11211752
LApr 19 · 12:35J. Chmielowski—6111081M. Marchlewski—11812113
WApr 18 · 17:30J. Chmielowski—1111133M. Marchlewski—94110
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.33J. Braun1.20—Sep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.50A. Daniel1.50—Sep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33M. Benes1.20—Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.56K. Kapik2.17—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——
M. Marchlewski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.