TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476121
Played Aug 23Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
4.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119711711––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 73.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 4–17 Mateusz Rutkowski Marcin Marchlewski has won 4 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-17 in 21
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 13 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1564 vs Rutkowski 1823
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Rutkowski +4
Rutkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 4.00 / Rutkowski 1.22
Signal prob.8% / 92%
Edge (Rutkowski)+15.8pp
TT Elite Series · #12476121
Marchlewski4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 70 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Rutkowski1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 389 of 562
Up 2–0, closes it97% 191 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it88% 314 of 356
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski1wins
AwayRutkowski9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRutkowski90%9 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski0Rutkowski10n = 10Rutkowski took 10 of 10
S2Marchlewski6Rutkowski4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski2Rutkowski7n = 9Rutkowski took 7 of 9
S5Marchlewski1Rutkowski3n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiRutkowskiM − RBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match36.243.6−7.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 991 vs 734 / 130648%56.2%476 / 991 vs 734 / 1306Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiMarchlewski 4.00/Rutkowski 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.4%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 01:30M. Marchlewski—711441M. Rutkowski—11511113
WJul 25 · 01:30M. Marchlewski—7121114113M. Rutkowski—111441252
LJul 24 · 23:15M. Marchlewski—641531M. Rutkowski—111113113
LJul 18 · 23:55M. Marchlewski—211991M. Rutkowski—11511113
LJul 18 · 21:45M. Marchlewski—51111872M. Rutkowski—118311113
LJul 18 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—331211112M. Rutkowski—1111108133
LJul 18 · 02:15M. Marchlewski—1111111092M. Rutkowski—136712113
LJul 17 · 23:55M. Marchlewski—10121071M. Rutkowski—121012113
LJul 10 · 19:40M. Marchlewski—7540M. Rutkowski—1111113
LJun 26 · 19:40M. Marchlewski—713671M. Rutkowski—111111113
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120
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