TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12471258
Played Aug 23Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191210––––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 57.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 8–8 Jakub Chmielowski Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1585 vs Chmielowski 1578
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Chmielowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Chmielowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.91 / Chmielowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #12471258
Marchlewski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 70 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Chmielowski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it74% 86 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwayChmielowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChmielowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski40%2 of 5
AwayChmielowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Marchlewski6Chmielowski4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S4Marchlewski4Chmielowski5n = 9Chmielowski took 5 of 9
S5Marchlewski1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiChmielowskiM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.4−4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 997 vs 345 / 71047.9%48.6%478 / 997 vs 345 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiMarchlewski 1.91/Chmielowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 23:15M. Marchlewski—11187113J. Chmielowski—3161171
LJul 31 · 21:20M. Marchlewski—11114682J. Chmielowski—991111113
LMay 24 · 19:05M. Marchlewski—811681J. Chmielowski—11911113
WMay 24 · 01:10M. Marchlewski—42511113J. Chmielowski—1123941
LMay 23 · 22:45M. Marchlewski—115481J. Chmielowski—81111113
LMay 23 · 20:15M. Marchlewski—81111842J. Chmielowski—119711113
WMay 16 · 16:45M. Marchlewski—511513113J. Chmielowski—118111192
LMay 15 · 16:40M. Marchlewski—11211752J. Chmielowski—911511113
WApr 19 · 12:35M. Marchlewski—11812113J. Chmielowski—6111081
LApr 18 · 17:30M. Marchlewski—94110J. Chmielowski—1111133
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski
Nothing scheduled
J. Chmielowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.33J. Braun1.20—Sep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.50A. Daniel1.50—Sep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33M. Benes1.20—Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.56K. Kapik2.17—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——
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