TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12471259
Played Aug 22Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511811––––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 63.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 2–1 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1601 vs Pietraszko 1529
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Pietraszko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Pietraszko 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Pietraszko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.80 / Pietraszko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marchlewski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #12471259
Marchlewski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 110 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Pietraszko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMarchlewski2wins
AwayPietraszko1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
AwayPietraszkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski3Pietraszko0n = 3Marchlewski took 3 of 3
S2Marchlewski3Pietraszko0n = 3Marchlewski took 3 of 3
S3Marchlewski1Pietraszko2n = 3Pietraszko took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiPietraszkoM − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.034.7+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 996 vs 416 / 83547.9%49.8%477 / 996 vs 416 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.80/Pietraszko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—12114482L. Pietraszko—1081111113
WJun 5 · 15:50M. Marchlewski—11115123L. Pietraszko—8711101
WDec 26 · 13:15M. Marchlewski—1111113L. Pietraszko—2960
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100
L. Pietraszko10
LSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113WSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113WSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko3.0021140K. Glazowski1.361113113WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123
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