TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12476129
Played Aug 23Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.12
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131210115––––
Dawid Poloszczanski
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
1131210115––––
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 8–0 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (82%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1572 vs Poloszczanski 1274
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 298 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Poloszczanski 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Poloszczanski 30%
Marchlewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Poloszczanski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.12 / Poloszczanski 5.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Marchlewski)+10.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12476129
Marchlewski1.12
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 110 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Poloszczanski5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 145 of 362
Down 0–1, comes back25% 52 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMarchlewski8wins
AwayPoloszczanski0wins
1 of 8 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 8–0, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski100%7 of 7
AwayPoloszczanskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski7Poloszczanski1n = 8Marchlewski took 7 of 8
S2Marchlewski6Poloszczanski2n = 8Marchlewski took 6 of 8
S3Marchlewski8Poloszczanski0n = 8Marchlewski took 8 of 8
S4Marchlewski2Poloszczanski1n = 3Marchlewski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home563%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiPoloszczanskiM − PBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match38.127.9+10.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 989 vs 326 / 82548.1%39.5%476 / 989 vs 326 / 825Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.12/Poloszczanski 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.7%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WFeb 21 · 02:25M. Marchlewski—1411113D. Poloszczanski—12990
WFeb 20 · 23:55M. Marchlewski—15713123D. Poloszczanski—131111101
WMay 17 · 01:25M. Marchlewski—1311113D. Poloszczanski—11960
WMay 16 · 22:55M. Marchlewski—117119113D. Poloszczanski—51141162
WFeb 23 · 04:30M. Marchlewski—1111113D. Poloszczanski—8390
WFeb 22 · 10:30M. Marchlewski—1111113D. Poloszczanski—9970
WFeb 15 · 11:40M. Marchlewski—1111113D. Poloszczanski—8730
WJan 25 · 10:30M. Marchlewski—61111113D. Poloszczanski—114341
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100LAug 22 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.808580L. Pietraszko1.911111113
D. Poloszczanski10
LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski3.50119101172A. Lilien1.25911128113LSep 5 · 24:35K. Sulkowski1.8511118113D. Poloszczanski1.85681171
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