TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467718
Played Aug 21Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71112105111191311
Illia Fokin
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:04 and never touched — 95.0% is still 95.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
95.0%
95.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 100 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 95.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 4–16 Illia Fokin Yuriy Shcherbak has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Fokin
Wrong
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 857 vs Fokin 1060
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 20% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Fokin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +1 · Fokin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 4.50 / Fokin 1.17
Signal prob.5% / 95%
Edge (Fokin)+15.6pp
Setka Cup · #12467718
Shcherbak4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 21 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Fokin1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 46 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak1wins
AwayFokin9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S2Shcherbak1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S3Shcherbak2Fokin8n = 10Fokin took 8 of 10
S4Shcherbak1Fokin3n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakFokinS − FBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.637.6−10.0per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 227 vs 125 / 23853.7%52.5%122 / 227 vs 125 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinShcherbak 4.50/Fokin 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
95%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak—9770I. Fokin—1111113
LAug 14 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak—6960I. Fokin—1111113
LAug 11 · 10:25Y. Shcherbak—51050I. Fokin—1112113
LAug 10 · 13:25Y. Shcherbak—10790I. Fokin—1211113
LJul 23 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak—611671I. Fokin—11811113
LJul 22 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak—108110I. Fokin—1211133
LJul 16 · 04:25Y. Shcherbak—591191I. Fokin—11117113
LJul 7 · 04:35Y. Shcherbak—117751I. Fokin—91111113
WJun 12 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—691111143I. Fokin—111197122
LJun 11 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak—4440I. Fokin—1111113
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
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